swinging on by and crisscrosses right over philadelphia. another one to three inches for the city there. probably a bigger deal on monday because it is a monday and not a saturday. but certainly a smaller storm. jake? >> thanks so much. that's it for "the lead." i'm jake tapper. i turn you over to wolf blitzer in "the situation room." have a great weekend. happening now, going after al qaeda. the u.s. insists it can't keep up the fight against the terror group's most dangerous affiliate despite the collapse of a friendly government in yemen. isis hostages. the terror group's deadline for a $200 million ransom passes. so what's the fate of these two captives? on the offensive. local forces battle to drive back isis. will american troops join the campaign to recapture iraq's second largest city? and inside the wreckage. divers enter the airasia fuselage for the first time as we get a new look at the airliner's final moments. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room."

violent upheaval. rebels hold the capital of yemen, a government that helped the united states battle al qaeda has collapsed in chaos and there are new fears terrorists will be free to carry out their plots unhindered. we are also getting new information tonight that the u.s. is doing all it can to continue its campaign in yemen against al qaeda's deadliest affiliate. at the same time we are also learning more about plans for a major american-led offensive against isis with the goal of capturing iraq's second largest city from that terror group. our correspondents and guests and analysts are all standing by. let's begin with our pentagon correspondent, barbara starr. she has the very latest. >> reporter: tonight, the uncertainty about what may happen next in yemen is only growing. yemen, a country in crisis with a government resigning and

dozens of u.s. diplomats heading home. at least publicly the white house insists it still can go after al qaeda's most dangerous branch. >> we continue to have a strong counterterrorism partnership with the national security infrastructure of yemen and we continue to be very vigilant about the ongoing effort to counter aqap in yemen. >> reporter: cnn has learned behind the scenes u.s. intelligence and military officials are urgently reaching out to crucial counterparts in yemen, trying to keep alive counterterrorism operations to track and target al qaeda in that country. the group that claimed it was behind the paris attacks. the u.s. continues collecting eavesdropping, satellite and other intelligence on potential locations for aqap's top operatives including its leader. >> make no mistake about it if

they have the intelligence and they have the shot, they will take it. >> reporter: taking the shot could mean more drone strikes deeply resented by yemenis. there hasn't been a strike since december. but there is also a covert u.s. military special operations commando team nearby perched and ready to conduct a mission on the ground against aqap if ordered. the u.s. is still struggling to catch up to the lightning advances by the houthi rebels this week and is assessing what their plans may be. >> i wouldn't say that it comes as a complete shock but yes, it did happen very quickly and of course, in a pretty abrupt fashion. >> reporter: the unrest may reach a crisis point sunday when parliament meets. it may reject the resignation of president hadi making the next step by the houthi rebels uncertain. >> the houthis have been very consistent for years that they are dead set against any foreign presence in yemen, regardless of

the mission, and that would certainly include the united states. >> reporter: one thing that hasn't changed, finding those al qaeda leaders in yemen, very tough by all accounts. they are well dug in. they are in hiding. but they appear to be safe. the u.s. doesn't appear to be able to find them. there may be even more trouble brewing. there are reports of fighting between houthis and al qaeda in yemen's oil-rich regions. that is one of the last things this very fragile country needs. wolf? >> barbara, just to be precise, the dozens of american diplomats who were told to get out of yemen, they left on regular commercial flights. the u.s. military did not have to fly in and get those people evacuated. >> reporter: that's correct. that is the result the pentagon wanted to see. they wanted people to make every effort to get out, to reduce the numbers at the embassy while they could still safely drive to the airport and board commercial flights. >> barbara, thank you. shiite rebels now control the streets of yemen's capital.

it's anybody's guess what happens next. our senior international correspondent, nick paton-walsh, was the only western tv correspondent on the ground there during this entire chaotic upheaval. he is now in beirut. >> reporter: we are trying to answer the question who is in charge of yemen. certainly in the capital as we left sanaa late last night, it was the houthis by no mistake. they have had checkpoints around the city for months but on the way to the airport in the dark early hours of the morning, they were looking through cars at regular four or five checkpoints on the main road out, looking for yemenis, perhaps officials from the just resigned administration not really intent it seemed on talking to foreigners or troubling them. but as the whole day passes to day, it's quite clear that sort of grip on the streets is not translated into any political process at all. the houthis are able to have people set off fireworks or light off small arms fire, we

heard after the president announced his resignation. after that it's been a vacuum. what we are concerned about obviously is quite how this moves forward politically. the houthis have had great success through dominating the streets and engineering a political deal which effectively meant the president would allow them to rewrite the constitution and place officials all over his ministries in exchange for simply backing off out of his government buildings with their gunmen. clearly, hadi's decision to resign was a way of stepping away from that deal entirely. potentially the constitution allows the speaker of parliament to take control but there's no obvious process ahead. all that technical detail may be brushed aside by the houthis if they don't like it. parts of the country are talking about seceding. in washington this must be a cause for absolute panic, because without somebody you can call in the government who you can trust as an ally you are really talking about a huge vacuum. the u.s. operates on their own and dominant power in the country at this point certainly

in the capital, the houthis, having one of their slogans being death to america. so a deeply troubling moment ahead just for the direction of yemen itself but also for quite what u.s. counterterror policy can do in that country without any form of stable government as it stands. wolf? >> nick paton-walsh joining us. the fate of two isis hostages threatened with death now unclear. in a chilling video ultimatum this week the terror group demanded japan pay $200 million ransom or else. the deadline has now passed. let's get the latest from chief national security correspondent jim sciutto. >> we are now more than 16 hours past the original deadline. that expired at 12:50 a.m. this morning east coast time. still no word. conflicting messages on jihadi forums forums. one of them posted a countdown clock today, promised a new video, said it was in production. we haven't seen that so still no final word. japan refused to pay the $200 million ransom demanded by isis.

real questions as to whether that was a serious demand at all. we also saw in the last 24 hours the mother of one of the hostages make an emotional plea for his life but as we know in the past when other mothers have done the same including for james foley, sadly, no good result. again, no final word but u.s. intelligence officials watching closely. >> there's a lot of concern right now, it seems like it's a critically delicate moment in the fate of these two japanese hostages, right? >> no question. listen we know they're in grave danger. these things have not ended well for past hostages but at this point, until u.s. officials and certainly japanese officials see hard proof of their fate they are not going to make any announcement. >> is there a sense right now, jim, that the entire region seems to be on fire almost. if you take a look at north africa, the arabian peninsula, the middle east then you have afghanistan, pakistan i don't remember a time when the region

seems to have been a source of so much chaos. >> no question. you have multiple hot zones right now spread across the region and you can go from the boko haram situation in nigeria into libya, certainly the loss of a leader in saudi arabia yemen, all to different degrees but when you speak to officials it says taken together it looks like a mess and clearly serious but many of these taken separately are manageable individually. i wouldn't say you have panic inside the white house and other departments in washington but certainly a level of concern that's great and it's unusual to see so many of these at one time. hard to say when we can identify a time when you have had so many of these regional hot spots boiling over at the same time. >> certainly is. jim sciutto, thank you. joining us now, our cnn national security analyst peter bergen. the journalist and middle east expert robin wright of the u.s. institute of peace. our global affairs analyst james reese, former army delta force commander and the former house intelligence chairman cnn national security commentator,

mike rogers. are you hearing anything by any chance about these two japanese hostages? we are all worried about their fate. we saw the video earlier in the week threatening them effectively with beheading if japan didn't pay that $200 million ransom. that deadline has come and gone. >> what's concerning is they are not hearing anything. that doesn't portend well for them. i believe early on that this was more of a messaging deal than it was a financial deal with them. just like we saw with foley, they demanded cash but had no real intention of getting that cash. matter of fact they had no connection with the u.s. government for negotiations. they just went ahead with the execution. we are seeing some very similar patterns here. doesn't mean it has happened but it's obviously a concern. >> because my sense is japan would have paid something maybe to get these two japanese guys out. other countries in europe have paid ransom and everything we were hearing is japan wanted to establish a dialogue with someone but nobody was willing to accept their phone call.

>> there has been precedence in the past. one of the reasons no one wants to get on the phone, because everyone knows we're listening. once we can listen and pin-point you there might be a bomb dropped on them. that becomes a critical aspect of not being able to communicate with isis. >> what's your analysis, peter? >> if it was a serious negotiation, we would be looking at $5 million so it's not a serious negotiation. >> what do they gain these isis terrorists by taking these two japanese hostages and beheading them? what's the point? >> you get the very discussion we're having right now. they are being broadcast not only on cnn but on networks around the world, all waiting for this announcement. it gives them the kind of psychological edge in the conflict where when it comes to the military equipment, they don't have the edge. but this terrorizes people enough that they think isis is bigger than it is. >> i don't understand why would

anyone want to join isis if they see butchery like this? what's the point? >> well i don't think it has as much to do with the butchery as it does the alienation, disillusionment among young muslims. i just came back from tunisia, and it has produced the largest number of foreign fighters for isis. when you look at europe there are a lot of muslims who have joined despite having a better living condition than they might in the countries from which their families came. it has a lot to do with the kind of economic realities, the sense of place, source of identity and who is going to give them a mission in life. >> is it also to a certain degree competition that's going on between al qaeda and isis right now? they are both competing for support, for money? is that what's going on at the same time? >> we had seen tracking of that for at least 12 months where there was this notion that if al

qaeda didn't get some points on the board, they were concerned about finances and recruiting and logistics hubs and about half of their al qaeda affiliates have pledged some support to isis either materially overtly or in some cases covertly have said hey, we're with you, we will give you help where we can. so it's really not necessarily that in this case because we have seen this pattern with them before. this is about their exertion of power. they believe that this is the power that holds their grip in places like eastern syria and iraq. they need to continue to show that they have brutality as a part of their governance model or they will lose grip. >> the guy holding the knife threatening to kill these two, it's the same so-called jihadi john that was in other videos the same british accent. apparently u.s. and other intelligence agencies they know who he is but they are not releasing his name, right? >> that is correct. >> why? >> i have high confidence they know exactly who he is. part of that is you don't want

to disrupt any activities in that lineage, if you will. he has associates he has people he's talked to he's had places he's visited and they don't want to disrupt any of that in order to continue to gain intelligence of value that could ultimately lead to him being brought to justice. >> everybody stand by. we have much more to discuss. the war on terror continues. the war against isis. there are new developments on that front as well. ♪so nice, so nice♪ ♪sweet, sweet st. thomas nice♪ ♪so nice, so nice♪ ♪st. croix full of pure vibes♪ ♪so nice, so nice♪ ♪st. john a real paradise♪

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as fighting heats up in iraq the united states is helping the iraqis plan an offensive to retake the key city of mosul from isis. there are now growing signs that could mean u.s. advisors end up joining the actual fight on the front lines. let's go back to our pentagon correspondent barbara starr. she is getting new information. >> reporter: tonight the u.s.-led coalition has been pounding isis supply lines into mosul with repeated air strikes. that has been ongoing. all of this is to prep the battlefield for that ground assault into mosul to try to retake the city. here's what's on the table, though. they have to get the iraqi ground forces ready, capable and able to go into that very tough fight. so there is training and equipping going on but the decision has to be made will u.s. advisors have to accompany them to the front lines. if the iraqis cannot do it all on their own, it may be that the

u.s. will have u.s. advisors accompany them. this is a decision a military decision that the president would have to approve. he would have to say yes. general martin dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs general lloyd austin the head of centcom, they have been looking at this. their advisors their aides say neither man is ready to make that recommendation right now. right now, they think it's too soon. they don't know if they need to do it. but both of them looking at that. they have said if it came to it they would make the recommendation. they are not there yet but it's going to be a very interesting few weeks to see how this shapes up. >> are they talking hundreds of u.s. ground forces or thousands? >> reporter: no wolf. this will be a very small number of advisors by all accounts. one of the things the iraqis may need help with is front line advisors as the assault would go on helping them plan how they want to attack move their forces about. also potentially u.s. forces

that could potentially help them mark targets for their attack. u.s. forces on the ground that know how to pick out enemy targets and transmit that information to iraqi forces. but the u.s. especially general dempsey and general austin really are determined the iraqis must take the responsibility for this. they have not shown as you know in past months especially last year a good deal of resolve and the u.s. is saying the u.s. military is saying it's not going to bail them out. they have to do this themselves. the question is how much and what kind of help the u.s. military might be able to give them. >> barbara, thanks very much. barbara starr with late-breaking developments over at the pentagon. let's get back to our panel. colonel reese, i have been to mosul. this is a city of nearly two million people. right now, isis is firmly in control. the iraqi military moves in

even with some u.s. military advisors that could be a huge bloodbath, if you will. >> it could, and it is. it's a huge place. but it's a condition set decision. right now with the iraqis they have been very successful going up the tigres river. they have gotten land back again. we are also back in talafar and mount sinjar. right now you are starting to isolate isis in mosul which is a good thing. if we put the american -- that's just a decision it's a course of action general austin is going through right now, that's something that will be coming down especially for the enablers. the close air support, the medical, the logistics piece, to help the iraqis figure this out but it will be a fight and it will be a blood bath. >> as you know peter, the iraqi military last year when isis came in from syria, they threw down their weapons and ran away basically, and the isis forces captured all those u.s. weapons, tanks, armored personnel carriers a lot of good stuff,

if you will. the iraqis simply evaporated. >> yeah but now we have heard lloyd austin general lloyd austin on the record telling the "wall street journal" that 6,000 fighters of isis have indeed been killed. if you do the math on that extend it out a year or so these casualties mount up. it's a group with a maximum of 30,000 people. they are recruiting but they are having what lloyd austin calls a manpower issue. so it will be a tough fight but isis in iraq at least is having problems. >> are you confident this operation is going to a, succeed and mosul will be liberated from isis? >> the great danger was that mosul fell so breathtakingly fast despite its size despite its strategic value. you have to worry about the sentiments inside the city as well and the problem is as much political as it is military. this is a predominantly sunni part of the country where they resent the shiite dominated government in baghdad.

one of the problems is the new government in baghdad hasn't done enough to reassure the zunis they will be part of the system there there will be power sharing, there will be resource sharing in ways that they will feel part of the country. so whatever happens on the ground militarily you have to have that very important part and that's where the u.s. intervention failed after eight years last time around. >> the big concern, a lot of big concern, i have spoken to a lot of analysts is this new government may be better than al maliki but he is still closely aligned with iran. the revolutionary guard has a huge military presence. they need to be a lot more influential in iraq right now. you are the former chairman of the house intelligence committee, than the u.s. >> they certainly have lines of communication that are envious to the folks we have in iraq today. remember we pulled out in a hurry. >> iran pulled in in a hurry. >> well, iran was there before. they expanded their presence. when there was some fighting going on in the neighborhood they turned around and looked

who their friend was and iran was standing there and the united states was not. again, you could monday morning quarterback that all day long but it left some marks and it left some scars and in that dangerous neighborhood you go to where your friends are. if it happened to be iran for them in a way that if the united states were there i don't think he would have made the same decisions, he didn't do that. now we have to unwind it. the reason i think this offensive is so important, you have to have some disruptive activity to their ability to recruit, train and really propagandize that they are winning this fight. the reason they are getting people to show up isn't because of just the threat of beheadings. that isn't it. it's the fact that it looks like they are taking it to the west. that's the way they are marketing it the way they are using their propaganda hey, we are winning, we are beating america, we are beating the west. they can't quite get us out of here. we are winning in iraq for people who don't think the same way we do. that message has to be countered. the only way we are going to counter that message is be able to show we can disrupt their

activities. you start seeing their command structure in disarray their inability to get logistics from syria into iraq now they have got a problem that's hard to explain and that's i think when certainly our allies -- >> everybody stand by. based on past performance, i'm not very confident in these iraqi troops. i hope i'm wrong. but based on what they did last year simply giving up it's not encouraging to me. we'll see what they can do. coming up a new king just took command of a powerful u.s. ally. up next what we know about him and what he's already promising. later, new data shedding some new light on the final minutes before airasia, that jet plunged into the sea. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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saudis bid farewell to king abdullah buried hours after he died at the age of 90. his successor is an experienced leader but is almost 80 himself and may have significant health problems. brian todd is joining us with more on what's going on in saudi arabia right now. >> tonight, there is real concern regarding the new king because he promoted a controversial minister and because of his health. can one of america's most crucial allies in the middle east be counted on when its new head of state may have serious physical and even mental issues? u.s. officials are hopeful king salman can maintain stability since up to this point, he's shown to be a capable leader. he signs as a no-nonsense savvy player inside the monarchy. able to sort out the house of a

asuds legendary feuds. >> he was the enforcer in the family slapping people across the knuckles if they did things wrong. >> reporter: the "washington post" reports salman abdulaziz, maintained a jail on his property while governor of riyadh province. >> someone has to discipline the royal family. >> reporter: there is genuine concern about the new king's health. he may have suffered a stroke. he has lost two sons to heart attacks and there are questions about his mental acuty. >> in meetings with foreign dignitaries he can function for about five minutes, keeping to his briefing notes, but then he gets confused. he goes off message and becomes very muddled. i'm told by medical experts that this is a classic sign of dementia. >> there are two theories. one is he has real health problems. after all, he's 79 years old. the other one is he's a very

busy man at 79 years old, that he shows stress. and for instance in the past two or three years, when the king has had his own severe health problems he's had two jobs. >> reporter: analysts say there's little question salman will maintain saudi arabia's role as a crucial u.s. ally and will keep up the fight against isis. what will also likely continue the brutal system of discipline inside saudi arabia which include floggings and public beheadings. the new king named the interior minister to the number three position. he once survived an assassination attempt by an al qaeda operative carrying a bomb inside his own body. a critic of the regime says he uses fear and intimidation to wield huge influence behind the scenes. >> he is seen by the west as the counterterrorism hero but inside the country he's seen as the evil man who oppresses human rights and throw women in prison

for driving. >> reporter: we pressed saudi officials for comments on those remarks about the human rights record and on the concerns about king salman's health. they did not respond to us. >> king salman now, he's from the one line of brothers who are sons of saudi arabia's original king but they are all getting old and even older. that's a deep concern right now. >> it really is. king salman has got six brothers all sons of the founder of saudi arabia and of his favorite wife but they are running out of sons from that strain. salman and his brother are the last two. that's seen as a reason that salman elevated the deputy crown prince. he is from that next generation. he's about 55 years old and wields enormous influence behind the scenes. >> he certainly does. everybody who has been to saudi arabia and deals with him knows he's a powerful powerful guy. brian todd thanks very much.

our experts are standing by. we will assess what's going on in saudi arabia what it means for the united states. we will take a quick break. welcome back to showdown! i'm jerry rice here discussing the big race between the tortoise and the hare. my guest is stephanie branton. jerry, i'm going bunny. shocker. not really. you see, the hare's "thoracic limbs" allow for greater extension and elongated strides. look for the hare to leverage this advantage. ok. vote on twitter for your chance to win a mercedes-benz big race viewing party.

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there's a new king tonight in saudi arabia a country that's a vital player in world oil price, a key u.s. ally in the war on terrorism. there are also deep concerns about the new king's health. our experts are here in "the

situation room." robin wright you just wrote a piece for "the new yorker" on what's going on in saudi arabia. does it look promising, not so promising? how worried should we be? >> i think saudi arabia's likely to go through a very stable transition. they work very hard as at making sure there's no ripple whether it's an impact on the price of oil or regional security issues. but i think this is a very interesting turning point for the kingdom. this is a moment they began that process of transferring power to a younger generation. the fact that they have a named deputy crown prince who is from the third generation in saudi arabia is very telling. this after all is a generation somewhere between 6,000 and 7,000 princes and princesses. in effect you almost have to create a new royal family from this huge amalgam of different families. it's interesting who they picked, because he's a security expert and this is a moment

where saudi arabia feels rather vulnerable. you have deterioration on the yemeni border the resignation of a president the saudis had helped come to power and had supported financially and politically. you have the sultan of oman also facing serious health problems. and to the north you have the saudis nervous about what's happening in iraq. they are building a 600 mile barrier that dwarfs the kind of berlin wall. they are beginning to feel quite susceptible to regional tremors. >> they are really worried also about iran right now and iran's nuclear program. that's a sort of grave concern. >> huge. they have been talking about this for years. certainly the announcement of the secret talks with iran has caused a lot of angst among the saudi royal family especially in the national security sector. >> secret u.s.-iranian talks in oman that led to the breakthrough. that's the dialogue that's been going on. >> many would call it a dialogue. not many would call it a breakthrough, unfortunately. if you recall there is it's

called the one two three agreement with the uae which allows them to have civilian nuclear power without enrichment. the iranians just got a deal that says they can enrich at least some undetermined amount of uranium. that sends all of our allies into the rafters. that's why saudi arabia is so concerned. then you see the expansion of activity by the quds force. they are concerned. >> if you were still a military planner, colonel reese, what would you be doing about the americans who are in yemen right now? >> well, we have talked about it for the last two days now. there's a critical task list and critical personnel list in the embassy. they have started doing those evacuations. that's what i would do get everyone out that's not critical and has to be there to keep the operations of the embassy going. then from there, it's a minute by minute decision by the planners by the regional security officer, to make that decision. again, i don't think we are in a panic mode right now. i think we've got the boats off the coast, we can react very quickly. i think we are in good shape. >> what about the yemenis who

helped the united states over these past few years, collaborated if you will helped target al qaeda targets, aqap, what about those folks? what happens to them? >> we've got to keep in mind there's the leadership that's bailed but then you always have the working level folks that are still there, they still want to get paid and they still want to be involved in that. that's where the misconnect comes in. but they're still there. i will tell you, it might not be a bad thing for the u.s. right now, what's going on if things stay stable we are still able to fight aqap and do those attacks if need be with those ground folks, and see what happens with the houthis, see if they put this thing together. >> peter, what's your analysis? >> the houthis hate aqap and they are a much larger group. on the other hand aqap's narrative is we are the guys that can defend you against the shia. so it could help both of them. that might not be good for us at all. >> all right, guys. hold your thoughts. we will continue our coverage of

what's going on but i've got to take a quick break. coming up also there's a another story we are following, an important first in the airasia crash investigation as divers finally go inside the jet's fuselage. at the top of the hour there's dramatic new video of the fighting as plans take shape for an important new military offensive against isis.

we're following new developments tonight in the airasia crash investigation. the jet with 162 people on board disappeared from radar four weeks ago during stormy weather over the java sea. let's bring in our aviation correspondent, rene marsh. she has the very latest.

>> reporter: cnn has obtained a second by second timeline from the indonesian transport ministry detailing the final moments of flight 8501. now, tonight, we know within just five minutes the aircraft went from normal operations to gone from radar. according to indonesia's ministry of transport, less than 45 minutes into airasia flight 8501 as the plane is approaching a violent thunderstorm the pilot requested to climb and turn left. controllers approved the turn but denied the altitude increase. less than three minutes later, at 32,000 feet the plane turns left. six seconds later, flight 8501 suddenly climbs. within 40 seconds, the plane is at 37,600 feet an increase of nearly 6,000 feet within a minute. >> he almost certainly was in some kind of strong updraft. that's well beyond the normal climb rate and even beyond the

capabilities of an airbus. >> reporter: suddenly the plane stalls in an a-320 it sounds like this. >> stall! stall! >> reporter: it descends rapidly, disappearing from primary radar, about five minutes after requesting to climb, controllers lose all signs allen diehl is a pilot and former ntsb investigator. he says the time line provides tools but not answers. >> we don't know if this aircraft was in this predicament because of a pure weather phenomenon or something on the aircraft failed or pilot error was involved. >> the search for missing passengers continues 100 below the surface of the java seat. divers entered the plane's main cabin. >> we found bodies in the fuselage of the plane. we cannot recover all of them because underwater conditions

are bad. >> six bodies were recovered including three women and a little boy. more remain inside. >> translator: when the divers tried to go deeper into the wreckage of the cabin, they were obstructed by dangling debris. >> more than 90 bodies are still missing. we are all waiting for the preliminary report. the indonesians say they will not release it publicly. it's their prerogative they do not have to release it under law. with such heightened interest thousands of lives lost many are hoping the indonesians reconsider. >> why wouldn't they release that information? obviously it's of critical importance. we have to learn the importance of what happened. >> so many eyes are on this and

want to know what went wrong. is itting something wrong with the aircraft a-320. many want to know the answers, what investigators know. international law does not force them to reveal that. they do not have to reveal it. >> let's get more perspective. joining us the former fbi assistant tom fuentes. >> i met yesterday with the indonesian ambassador and he said they want to put the information out as soon as they can. they don't want to put out conflicting investigation if later investigation determines the initial investigation information was wasn't accurate. they want to be more accurate before they put it out.

they'll put it out. >> the flight was normal going fine and in five minutes crashes. what happened? >> we're so arrogant in our knowledge we know all about weather phenomenon. in past decades we proved micro burst and wind shear. it's a possible the convergence zone in the middle of a monsoon ran into something that was like a tornado and hurricane combined. it got blown up in the position the plane couldn't stand the stress stalled out, came down and crashed. we don't know all weather phenomenons that exist on this planet. >> sounds air france. it sounds like a similar scenario. >> they were confused by the instrument readings are they accurate are they frozen over and giving an accurate reading? the same type of confusion could have existed, however the updraft is extremely significant.

the pilot used to fly f-16s. he would have known a plane like that couldn't take that stress and do that kind of climb. >> are you confident the indonesians will get the job done the investigation, properly? >> i'm confident it will be done properly. they'll have to determine if instrument readings on the data recorders give them the information they want or were they giving false readings not only to us now and to the pilots at time they were dealing. >> they're getting help from outside sources including the united states right? >> right. >> we'll stay on top of this for viewers as well. coming up as local forces fight to push back isis will american troops get ready to join the campaign to recapture iraq's second largest city. despite the collapse of the ally in yemen, u.s. is vowing to keep up the fight against the most dangerous affiliate there. stay with us. music: melodic, calm music. hi this

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happening now. assault on isis iraqi troops preparing to retake the country's second largest city from terrorist forces. are american forces about to join the battle lines of this battle? the execution deadline set for two hostages passes. did the captives meet the same grim fate of other hostages?

is u.s. intelligence losing most important eyes and ears for fighting al qaeda? terrorist man hunt. new video of suspected accomplice to a dead willy attack at a jewish museum seven months ago. was it an isis strike in europe? we want to welcome our guests around the world. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room." >> breaking now. new video of a fight against isis. they're conducting an operation near the city of mosul. cnn is told top commanders are considering whether to send american advisors closer to the front line in a move that would have to be personally approved by president obama. at the same time we're waiting

to learn the fate of two japanese enmen threatened with beheading unless the country paid $200 million in ransom. the deadline expired 17 hours ago. all of this happening as the u.s. watches the situation in yemen which offered critical help to the united states fighting the al qaeda affiliate in yemen. we're following the breaking news with our correspondents and guests including the key member of the house armed services and foreign affairs committees. let's begin with chief national security correspondent jim sciutto with much on the latest. >> wolf a u.s. official confirms today something the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff signalled for months that is that he may recommend u.s. ground remain silent tos on the ss ss ss ss drs. ground forces on the front lines.

they would be in combat in what would be the signature battle so far, retaking the strong hold in mosul. this is the front line in the war against isis. kurdish militia battling the terror group on the outskirts of the northern iraqi city of mosul. the pentagon tells cnn it is now prepared to recommend a small number of u.s. military advisors join this fight on the front lines if necessary. accompanying iraqi ground force when they launch to retake the city this spring despite repeated promises by the president he will not place u.s. troops in combat. today the white house spokeman josh earnest says mr. obama stands by that pledge. >> he does not believe it would be in our best interest for a

large scale military deployment to be executed in iraq. committing more american ground troops in a combat role to iraq is not in our best interest. >> the u.s. in iraq have marketly different timetables. iraqi commanders insist they're ready now. u.s. commanders disagree. a difference clearly testing the patience of iraqi prime minister. >> due to logistics and priorities this is important everyone matches the iraqi timetable rather than their own. >> the fight against isis has two different realities on two different sides of the iraq syria border. in iraq the terror group has seen momentum stop the pentagon says. in syria it's still gaining.

>> it hasn't had effect on isis growth in syria. we have to think of this as a one theater operation a, not two theaters. one joint theater. that's how isis sees it. if they're hurt in iraq they can move to syria and vice versa. >> a deadline for japan to pay $200 million ransom to free the hostages expired early friday with no word yet of their fate. >> iraqi forces are simply not ready for an assault as large as one necessary to retake mosul. i went to iraq last many month with general john terry, commander of u.s. forces here. he told us it will be months before iraqi forces are prepared. it would take a three years minimum for u.s. forces to train the security forces in iraq. the u.s. commanders are on the long game. you have impatience from the iraqi side. >> thank you jim.

any ground game against terrorists is a risk of being lost in yemen, the country unraveling. the militant that helped the u.s. battle militants has collapsed. the u.s. is trying to keep up on the unfolding crisis. barbara starr is working this at the white house. what are you hearing about the latest developments? >> the we know the u.s. priority is keep counters al qaeda in yemen if though the the most dangerous al qaeda affiliates said to be behind the paris attacks. the white house says it has a counter terrorism partnership with government of yemen. there's no functions government in yemen. what we know at cnn is behind the scenes u.s. intelligence and military officials urgently reach out to counter parts in yemen trying to cobble together keep whatever intelligence they can flowing about al qaeda in yemen. where are the top leaders?

eves dropping satellite intelligence ready to do more drone strikes if they can. the big problem right now is those al qaeda leaders in yemen are well dug in. they are in hiding. they are in their safe haven in yemen. apparently well out of the reach of any real fundamental u.s. intelligence pinpointing where they are. all well and good to try to keep working the problem, keeping an eye on disintegration of yemen. for now, al qaeda leaders seem to be out of range of any u.s. strikes. >> as you earlier reported barbara, dozens of american diplomats were evacuated and left yemen today. there's still plenty more u.s. military personnel at the same time. >> the embassy has a smaller contention but indeed there are -- they're not saying exactly how many. there are american civilians and diplomats there and good number

of u.s. marines heavily guarding the embassy. the feeling is they're not under direct threat. i have to tell you, this is still a situation that anyone in the pentagon landfall tell you they're watching minute by minute. if there's further draw down of evacuation of the embassy, that order has not come. everybody is watching the situation on the streets of the capital of yemen. >> we know there's at least two in yemen ready for action. more personnel could be brought if necessary very quickly. barbara, thanks very much. meanwhile there's more trouble for the u.s. there's a frosty relationship between president obama and the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. negotiations and talks are

threatened. cnn global affairs correspondent elise is there for us. tell us about the situation. >> every time we say the relationship between president obama and prime minister netanyahu has never been so bad it gets worse. u.s. officials are warning prime minister's netanyahu decision to address the u.s. congress and his actions could actually hurt his country and cost it critical support from his closest ally. prime minister netanyahu's plans to address the u.s. congress is causing fractions in the already brittle relationship. the white house is furious with the israeli leader for accepting house speaker join boehner's invitation. last week president obama in an angry phone call warned netanyahu not to interfere in

the battle with congress over iran's sanctions. . they say netanyahu arranged behind the president's back to deliver a speech critical of his policy. >> if we had the opportunity to weigh in on that more we would welcome the opportunity and probably make a variety of changes. >> it's the latest confrontation in a series of growing tensions between the to allies. last march in a testy oval office meeting, netanyahu buffed the president es attempts to reach a peace deal n. october, the president denied the high level meetings over harsh criticism of secretary of state john kerry peace efforts. frustrations reached new heights after a top white house official used an expletive to describe netanyahu saying he had no guts to make peace. kerry in the last month made 50

phone calls to stop action in the united nations security council and u.s. criminal court is running out of patience. >> if the administration wants to get anywhere on the palestinian issue, on dealing with iran, stabilizing the region they're going to have to find a way to manage their relationship with israel. >> u.s. officials insist washington support will remain despite tensions. the timing couldn't be worse as the u.s. itself teeters on the brink. >> wolf u.s. officials accuse prime minister netanyahu of using his visit and address to congress as a campaign stop in advance of the march elections. they warn that could backfire if israelis about to go to the polls see their leaders doing so much damage to this critical relationship. it's really bad wolf. >> israeli elections set for march 17th.

the address he's supposed to give march 3rd two weeks before the israeli elections. elise, thank you. let's talk about this and a lot more with congressman from hawaii. thanks for coming in. are you worried about the strain in u.s. and israeli relations given this personal relationship between the president and prime minister? >> overall we've got to keep ur eye on the bigger picture and look at our ally in the region especially this time when there's so much unrest and lack of stability happening in different places. it's important for us to also look at and make sure we don't get suck into what's happening in different places. each of these different countries like yemen, syria, iraq for example have different dynamics. what we have to do is keep at the forefront. what's in the best interest of the united states?

keeping the american people safe. then take action based on that. when we look at threats posed now, the answer to that question is al qaeda, isis. this is islamic extremist terror threat threatening us here and around the world. >> inviation from the speaker to prime minister to address congress was that wise with issues in iran specifically now? >> i don't see a problem with the invitation personally. obviously iran and negotiations are on the top of many people's minds clearly in israel region and here in the united states. >> what do you want the u.s. to do right now in iraq? you're a veteran. you serve in iraq. you see that situation over there. a lot of us are not confident whatever the u.s. does now in the end is going to lead to a stable peaceful pro american iraq. given the ten years of enormous

investment that didn't work out so well. >> i agree completely. the worst thing the united states do is continue the failed policies from the past. as we look to iraq and continued propping up of a so called one central government it's something that's not going to work. you saw in previous segments about how long they're saying it's going to take to train this iraqi security forces three years. we've already trained them for a decade. when push came to shove, they cut, ran and dropped their weapons. the solution lies in something that vice president biden put forward saying you have these natural three divisions in iraq. you have kurdish saying we don't have much time but the only chance for a successful iraq is separating into three semi a ton mouse regions. this government has created oxygen for isis to go in say

work with us and we'll liberate you from the oppressive government. >> your advice to the administration of the president of the united states don't get sucked back into iraq. this is a country that's seen enormous tensions for hundreds of years. get out of there while you can. don't risk anymore lives and spend a few more billion dollars. >> support the natural divisions that have been there generations upon generations. divisions there between sunnis, shias and kurds. otherwise this conflict will continue. when we look at what's in the best interest of the united states when we look at what's happening in iraq it's removing oxygen that isis is taking advantage of iraq r because of sectarian divides and sectarian civil war and aligning with the sunni factions existing there. >> how do you get rid of isis? we see pictures of jihadi john guy with a knife, threatening to

behead two japanese hostages. that ransom has come and gone. it's terrifying when you think about it especially with the his history of americans beheaded. >> the most important thing is we have to identify exactly who they are. something happened today where secretary kerry made a statement which i think was evident of the problem we're seeing. in the speech he talked about how islamic extremists are engaged in quote criminal conduct poverty, thrill seeking and other factors. he went onto say ultimately this fact will be determined by success in creating prosperity widely shared. this is completely missing the point of this radical islamic ideology fuelling these people. it's a huge mistake thinking

somehow if we give them $10,000 and give them a nice place to live somehow they're not going to be engaged in this fighting. osama bin laden is a perfect example. millionaire that went and lived in the desert because of this ideology fuelling his attacks on the united states and attacks we're seeing further now. >> you were in the situation with me last week and said you wanted the president of the united states to directly address this issue is. in your words, islamic terrorism. you wanted to use those words which he's been reluctant to do. have you heard from the white house since saying those words? >> i haven't. it's disturbing and misfortunate to see secretary of state john kerry doubling down on refusal to use those words. words matter because words are expression of understanding and feeling and intention. if you refuse to understand this simple concept of who exactly is our enemy, who is posing a threat to the american people

and why? then we can't begin to talk about how do you defeat them. that's a separate conversation that can only happen once the identification takes place. >> you're a democratic member of congress. you're standing by what you said. >> absolutely. this is issue of safety of american people that must transend politics. >> stand by. we have much more to discuss. good thing you're on the armed services and foreign relations committee. stay with us. much more coming up right after this. [container door opening] ♪ what makes it an suv is what you can get into it. ♪ [container door closing] what makes it an nx is what you can get out of it. ♪ introducing the first-ever lexus nx turbo and hybrid. once you go beyond utility there's no going back.

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. rebels hold the capital of em ennow. the government has collapsed in

chaos. there are now new fears that terrorists will be free to carry out plots unhindered. we're back with congresswoman of hawaii. this situation in yemen is a disaster. it doesn't look encouraging down the road at least to me. >> it's another dynamic you could say is similar to iraq and the government in power with the minority that's oppressed. the minority now is pushing back against the government. the future remains uncertain. a lot of people are saying the chaos created will create an opening for aqap to step in and really regain more power. what i'm focused upon here again. i think it's important we take a step back from what's happening evolving hour by hour on the ground and look at what are our capabilities fighting against

our enemy, al qaeda, isis and other extremist groups in places like yemen. we've got to look at it and make sure our military is mobile that we're taking advantage of superior technology and superior war fighters and evolving with dynamics on the ground. >> the fighting is going to make u.s. drone strikes against the targets in yemen more difficult. there hasn't been any we're told since december. >> it will make it more difficult. again, we've got to focus on making sure we can be the quickly evolving force that can adapt to different environments. when you look at the region in the middle east there's unrest in many places and different situations. we've got to fight in stable and settled environments but especially given the threat imposed to us now. even more so. we've got to be highly flexible mobile and able to operate in highly chaotic environments. >> if you look at the region and big picture, it's a disaster

what's going on now. the u.s. had to pull out completely and shut down the embassy in somalia. it could be doing that in yemen. look what's happened in libya, north africa that the u.s. pulled out. this is the u.s. embassy in tripoli. this is the pool the ambassador used to have there. these are rebels terrorists that have taken over the u.s. embassy in tripoli after the u.s. launched hundreds of tomahawk cruise missiles to crew to remove him from power. the arab spring the democracy over there. look what's going on in libya. >> libya is a perfect example of the mistake we should not make. when obama and secretary clinton made the decision to go in there was no after plan on what happens next. as a perfect example of why we should not allow the united states to get involved in these civil wars or sectarian wars that are happening in many

different places especially across the middle east and why it's so critical for us to answer that a all important question. what's in the best interest of the united states? we should not be in the nation building regime changing business that's caused this chaos. >> when you think act $2 billion u.s. taxpayers spent in libya trying to get rid of ka daffy you see a the failed state, terrorists in control. you say to yourself, $2 billion. imagine what you could done with education, health care research infrastructure. $2 billion is a lot of money for what? >> exactly. >> got to leave it there. thanks for joining us. just apphead the hunt for an isis accomplice. was there a connection to the paris attacks in the recent foiled belgium plot?

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it may have been the first isis attack in europe months before the attack many paris, an attack in a museum. pamela has the latest on what's going on.

what's the latest? >> reporter: wolf as this terrorism crack down continues, tonight for the first time belgian authorities are asking for the public's help identifying another potential terrorist on the run believed to be attached to the isis shooting last may. belgian authorities are trying to hunt down the man seen here walking behind the isis fighter who killed four people at the jewish museum last may. now the prosecutor in brussels says this man may have been one of the accomplices in the museum shooting. this as authorities in belgium continue efforts to track down the alleged ring leader in a foiled attack targeting police officers earlier this month. according to inner pole secretary general, there's concern of islamist radicalization across europe.

>> maybe not in control structure but we have the lone wolves and those returning from conflict zones imposing threats to countries they come from. >> reporter: half a dozen european countries cracked down on terror cells as well as those believed to be planning separate attacks. >> it's very difficult to detect plans before terrorists take action against innocent people. >> reporter: in france authorities are scrambling to prevent another terrorist attack. fbi is assisting french authorities into their investigation with the paris attacks analyzing forensics, laptops, fingerprints and running names through databases as they look at those red lighted to suspects. several associates are hiding out in syria including coulibaly's wildfire boumeddiene

in turkey. >> we informed france. >> you lost her. >> we were not informed in advance. can you blame spain because she went to spain? if you cannot blame france and spain, you cannot blame turkey. >> reporter: and a source i spoke to today here in paris involved with the investigation says authorities are in the thick of it and need a lot of answers. the big concern is there could be others they're not aware of involved with the kouachi brothers and coulibaly here in europe. >> pamela brown in paris, thanks very much. let's dig deeper. our analyst, retired military general and also retired lieutenant colonel james reese and tom fuentes and cnn national

security analyst peter bergen. you saw the video and suspicion of the attack manyin paris and the one in the museum earlier. how do you go about investigating this case? >> it's a good sign they asked for public assistance. normally they're relucktant to put out pictures or videos in europe. it's common here but they don't normally there. >> we don't know the connections yet. the guy a attacked in brussels and killed four people was in syria. it's unclear what his relationship with isis might be. the attack in paris had nothing to do with isis as far as we can tell. that was an al qaeda and arabian peninsula attack. >> there could be overlap. general, what's your reaction to these reports the iraqis are trying to retake mosul, the

second largest city in iraq. a city of 2 million people. peshmerga fighters are key in all of this. they want more u.s. advisors more aid on the front lines if there's going to be assault to retake mosul. it sounds a little like a mission. tell me your analysis. >> i don't think it's mission. they're preparing to seize the city of mosul. peshmerga are pushing to do that. retaking of mosul will be challenging. mosul is a city of 1.5 million people. it's a huge urban area. for the iraqis to say that they're trying to rush this is critically important not to do. general terry is over there trying to force his will on them saying you guys aren't ready for this. i've seen this many times before. the amount of time i spent in

iraq where iraqi forces want to rush into things don't understand there's a need for intelligence, overhead platforms, aviation support, logistics, artillery. they don't have any of that now. they tend to rush in with infantry and in an urban fight like mosul, that's not what you want to do. >> that's a good point the general makes colonel. the new prime minister of iraq al a-abadi caused anger in washington when he said the u.s. has been too slow to provide weapons and training for his country. what has the united states done more than a decade in iraq in terms of billions and billions of in training and weapons for iraq that iraqis quick lay banly abandoned as forces came in. >> you're right. we did a very good job. we left them in good shape. the problem is the senior leadership in iraq through the years have let them degrade.

no soldier is going to sit on a hill with a stick and try to fight isis. >> should anybody have confidence in a badi the new prime minister? the last one tried out to be a disaster. >> they're trying hard to make this happen with the u.s. presence and coalition. we've got to get time. diplomatic side has got to continue to work. >> let's talk about japanese hostages. the deadline has passed. you saw jihadi john as he's called this isis threat the men would be beheaded unless japan paid $200 million. the japanese tried to talk to someone and couldn't find anyone to pick up the phone, if you will. how do you deal with a situation like this? they're possible going to continue to make these videos. >> well we know there's unfortunately an american female who's name we're not withholding. she's 26 an aid worker. i think even for isis you know

murdering a female would be a bridge too far. the a fact is japanese hostages who's fate is unfortunately likely to be the same as other hostages in videos. we also know there's a british journalist who's been held. what do you do with them? this is colonel reese's territory. we know july 2014 there was a special operations effort to get these people released. it didn't work. in the absence of successful rescue or -- we've had some hostages escape. one american escaped, who was held by one of the groups. that's the only option of them. >> let me ask the general to talk about the deteriorating situation in yemen right now. a lot of american diplomats are evacuated. there's a u.s. presence there. there's deep concern this situation could explode there. the u.s. has been trying to deal with al qaeda there.

doesn't look encouraging. >> as we look at the removal of people from the embassy wolf they are doing this in a phased operation. they probably have 20 things they're checking off to determine when they can pull people out. they've done that with some of their elements. they had the key elements of the embassy still remaining. this could get sporty manyin the next couple of days or level out. i actually believe the government is going to colonel back together. there are members of the parliament of mr. hadi's government that understand if they don't replace the leadership they've got a failed state. cooler heads will prevail in the next couple of days. i think the american embassy being there and supporting this is extremely important. >> delicate situation, potentially very dangerous for american diplomats and military

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jeopardy jeopardyjep jeopardy jeopardy. tom, set the scene. how bad is it? >> countries all over the world are looking at middle east because this uncertainty could affect many nations. it starts with saudi arabia the death of the king his half brother into power. it should mean policies remain in place, but that may or may not be the case. a lot is at stake. this is the largest exporter in the world of products and their military has been strong to a degree of stability, keeps other countries from paying attention. beyond that what about yemen? it's not clear who is going to be in charge when all dust settles there. rebel forces putting tremendous pressure on. this region has been working against terrorism for some time. plenty there supporting terrorism including al qaeda in

the arabian peninsula. up north, let's talk syria and iraq. we're going to put them together not just because they share a geographic border but a common problem, isis. trying to carve out islamic caliphate between the two countries. syria has a civil war going on for a long time. bashar al-assad going through rebuilding. these are four nations ss causing uncertainty. >> tom, we haven't touched on others worrisome within their own right. run through those. >> there are many. egypt for quite some time has been facing a degree of uncertainty. it's in order to sure what it's doing going forward. israel is a strong u.s. ally. israel could feel a lot of pressure from all this. relations between israel and u.s. have been dicey lately. this is the one to really watch in all of this iran.

iran already has a lot of influence in this region and there's always the chance with all this uncertainty out there wolf they could emerge as the big winners with more influence throughout the middle east. wolf? >> incredibly incredibly intense situation throughout africa middle east right now. thank you tom. there's much more breaking news ahead coming up. first, cnn michaela pereira has this "impact your world." ♪ ♪ >> beautiful songs from men who's lives have often been anything but. ♪ go tell it on the mountain ♪ >> the man behind the music is newnan. in 2013 he started the singing choir made up of homeless man. he got the idea during morning

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cnn has confirmed mitt romney met with top advisors today one day after meeting with potential rival, the former florida governor jeb bush. joining us to talk about that and a whole lot more are gloria borger and ana navarro. you've been reporting on this meeting. what are you hearing in. >> i think they're all getting back together again and someone said to me it would be news if we weren't meeting or talking to each other because it's clear, wolf this i might want to run from last fall is now become top fund-raiser of his today said i think the odds are 70 or 80% that he's going to run. they've got to get ready. they've got to compile a staff, a communications team.

they got to get their fund raising together. it's not as if everybody is jumping out of wood work saying i think it's fabulous that rommitt romney is going to run. >> is this winnable? forget about the election the nomination? >> he's got the infrastructure. he's been running for president since 2006 2007. on the con side he had to drag the conservative base kicking and screaming back in the last election. they're not going to go for it again without a fight. he's got trouble on the establishment side where he's going to have a much tougher primary against far more formidable foes in 2012 or 2008. >> you've been following these development closely. we know romney and the former florida governor met in utah yesterday. i haven't heard a lot of details of what was discussed there, but you're close to jeb bush what are you hearing?

>> this is something jeb bush has been doing. a few weeks ago he met with senator john mccain. this is a meeting that's been scheduled for many weeks. i think neither mitt romney or jeb bush wanted to call it off. i suspect it was an exchange of idea timing of where each other is. why they're doing it. it's a meeting between two people who had a friendly relationship for many years. >> a polite meeting between two pals gloria? >> there's tension between the two of them. they were both well raised an wouldn't cancel a meet that had been pre-scheduled. from the romney folks, jeb bush was not as enthusiastic about mitt romney in 2008 or 2012. jeb is getting in. jeb bush getting in made

everybody say, oh, my goodness we got to get out there and lock up some donors. jeb has made everybody jump in sooner than they thought including rom including mitt romney. he had to make a decision. >> jeb bush is running. he's given up his seats on boards. it's every indication he wants to run for the republican presidential nomination. >> absolutely. he got an incredibly early to try to clear the field or tell donors to keep their powder dry. he cut all those ties. that was a very big step. he can always go back but you don't take those steps in your personal life if you're not

going to take a huge step that is running for president. >> you have no doubt about that do you anna? no doubt he's running? >> i think he's -- i think he still has a chance to pull the plug on it. until he announces a formal campaign i think there's a doubt. i think he's doing everything in a very forceful and determined way. i think he spends a lot of time before he made the announcement in december thinking about how he was going to do it and when. i think he spent the thinking part of it has been done. to the point that gloria made earlier that the romney folks think jeb bush didn't do enough for them or wasn't incredibly enthusiast enthusiastic i think that's an unfair criticism because i think he did practically every event and every ad and surrogate speech. it's something he didn't do for marco rubio.

>> this florida senator, he's even suggesting jeb bush runs even if mitt romney runs he might want to run too. >> he just announced a new finance chairman. i think they're feeling the heat from jeb bush here. now that it's clear that bush is going to get in people have to decide what they're going to do because the money will dry up. rubio share a donor base i would presume from florida. >> competing for stachers too. >> florida will be the epicenter of this friprimary. they will be competing for the money and the staff and the support. >> it's an early primary state and difficult for mitt romney to

get to the nomination without florida. with jeb bush in the race that's very difficult. >> have great weekend. that's it for me. i'm wolf blitzer in "the situation room." erin burnett outfront starts out. the fate of two isis hostages unknown tonight as the deadline for their execution has passed. isis remains silent. could they be alive. a black man shot and killed by a black police officer and it's all on tape. the incident under investigation tonight. was it justified. the nfl breaks its silence on new england patriots. did tom brady cheat. let's go outfront.